This week witnessed the success of several Hezbollah drone attacks against the IDF troops invading Southern Lebanon. The unexpected high success rate of these attacks raised questions about the new techniques deployed by Hezbollah to fill the gap with the Israeli military machine. Drones are not a new weapon in the asymmetrical Israeli-Hezbollah warfare, but the ongoing conflict stimulates unending innovation from both sides.
Hezbollah employed loitering munitions against Israel using early generations of the Iranian drone technology. Israel also deployed UAVs for intelligence reconnaissance and surveillance (IRS) and combat purposes. Israel depended extensively on electronic warfare and jamming to counter drones, with a high success rate exceeding 90%. The new development this week indicates that the success rate will drop significantly after Hezbollah has apparently developed anti-jamming methods inflecting higher casualties among the Israeli ranks.
Hezbollah reportedly copied the evolution of drone technology inspired by the Russian-Ukrainian war. Russia-manufactured fiber-optic loitering munitions do not require radio signals or GPS to operate. Instead, they rely on fiber-optic wires to connect with the operator giving an exceptional jamming-resilient FPV drone.
In other words, electronic warfare and jamming measures are no longer decisive against such UAVs. No air defense systems can intercept drones without electronic locking.
The main weakness of these fiber drones, however, is their limited range, which depends on the length of the wires. This explains that fiber drones are a practical option for Hezbollah as a direct neighbor to Israel, while it is not an option for Iran against Israel. Iran played an essential role in providing Hezbollah with the required tools for the mass production of fiber drones.
The Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu discussed Hezbollah’s loitering munitions and missile threats earlier this week publicly. He mentioned that he ordered a “special project” to counter Hezbollah’s fiber drones, and it may take time.
Netanyahu knows that there is no one countermeasure that can guarantee 100% success rate against drones, but he just wants to raise the rate, which dropped significantly this week. He may count on the deployment of beam laser air defenses to examine for the first time on this scale, or a combination of physical barriers such as nets, and different layers of air defense. The last option may be more practical and quicker; otherwise, the IDF will have losses on a daily basis.
The IDF is one of the armies that invested in drone technology since 1973, and Israel is one of the top five producers of drones, in addition to the USA, China, Iran, and Turkey. This long history of drone experience did not protect Israel from this technology.
This paradox sheds light on the fact that producers of drones allocated most of their investment to developing their technologies and invested much less in developing countermeasures. It also reveals how warfare theaters are strongly linked. The ongoing war in Eastern Europe develops technologies and tactics that are transferred almost immediately to the Middle East.
The Success of the fiber loitering munitions paves the way for escalating the attrition of the IDF in Lebanon, and may be used widely by Iran against its direct neighbors in close ranges up to 10 miles if the war re-emerges. This development increases drones’ military effectiveness, but turning this effectiveness into strategic changes depends on how Hezbollah employs them in its broader strategy against the IDF.
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