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On 1 May, the U.S. and Israel launched Project Freedom, a mission to guide stranded ships out of the Gulf. But by 5 May, President Donald Trump announced that the mission would be paused temporarily.
The UAE’s exit from OPEC reflects a calculation that the benefits of flexibility, capturing market share, now outweigh the benefits of collective restraint.
Higher oil prices may boost revenues in the short term, but prolonged conflict and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz threaten the trade, aviation, finance, tourism, and logistics networks that underpin the UAE’s diversified economic model.
By moving from war around the Strait of Hormuz to a direct naval blockade of Iranian ports, Donald Trump has deepened a crisis that was already distorting oil flows, freight markets, and inflation expectations. The immediate target may be Iran, but the economic damage radiates far beyond it.